AI and I: How Many Antivaxers Are There Really?

calculate how many “antivaxers” exist in America, and show your calculation

GROK:

Estimating the number of “antivaxers” in America involves understanding the nuances of vaccine hesitancy and opposition, which can vary significantly based on definitions, surveys, and methodologies. Here’s a step-by-step approach using available data:

1. Definition of “Antivaxers”:
   • “Antivaxers” can be defined as individuals who oppose all vaccinations or have significant doubts about vaccine safety and efficacy. However, for practical purposes, we’ll use survey data that categorizes people based on their attitudes towards vaccines, including those who have not received any doses of specific vaccines like the COVID-19 vaccine.
2. Population Data:
   • According to recent estimates, the population of the United States is approximately 333 million people.
3. Survey Data on Vaccine Hesitancy:
   • Study from Texas A&M University (2021): About 22% of Americans self-identify as anti-vaxxers or sometimes identify with this label. This includes those who always or sometimes identify as part of the anti-vaccine movement.
   • CDC Data on Vaccination Rates: In August 2022, it was reported that 74.2 million people (about 22.5% of the population) had not received any doses of the COVID-19 vaccine.
4. Calculation Using Self-Identification:
   • If 22% of Americans identify with the anti-vaxx label:
     • Number of “antivaxers” = 333 million * 0.22 = 73.26 million.
5. Calculation Using Vaccination Rates:
   • Using the number of people unvaccinated for COVID-19 as a proxy for anti-vaccine sentiment:
     • Number of “antivaxers” = 74.2 million.

Given these figures:

• Using self-identification: Approximately 73.26 million Americans might be considered “antivaxers.”
• Using vaccination rates: Approximately 74.2 million Americans had not received any dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, which can be taken as a rough estimate of anti-vaccine sentiment.

These numbers provide a broad estimate but should be interpreted with caution due to:

• The variability in how “antivaxer” is defined across surveys.
• The dynamic nature of vaccine hesitancy, which can change with public health campaigns, misinformation spread, and new vaccine developments or mandates.

Therefore, while we can estimate around 73 to 74 million Americans might align with anti-vaccine sentiments, these numbers are an approximation and subject to change.

Now the same question for ChatGPT… calculate how many “antivaxers” exist in America, and show your calculation

ChatGPT said:

To calculate the approximate number of individuals in the United States who identify as “antivaxxers,” we’ll rely on publicly available data and basic math. “Antivaxxers” are broadly defined as those who oppose or are hesitant toward vaccines. Here’s how we can estimate:

Step 1: Population of the United States

The U.S. population as of 2023 is approximately 334 million.

Step 2: Vaccine Hesitancy Rates

According to recent surveys by sources such as the CDC or Pew Research Center, about 10-15% of Americans express vaccine hesitancy or outright opposition to vaccines. For a conservative estimate, we’ll use 12%.

Step 3: Calculation

We multiply the total U.S. population by the estimated percentage of vaccine-hesitant individuals:334,000,000×0.12=40,080,000334,000,000 \times 0.12 = 40,080,000334,000,000×0.12=40,080,000

Step 4: Interpretation

Approximately 40 million Americans might be categorized as “antivaxxers” or vaccine-hesitant based on current estimates.

This calculation assumes uniform distribution across age groups and does not account for regional differences or shifts in attitudes due to public health campaigns or events.

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